Updated Projections - Game 90 of 162
Roller coaster
Composition of Projections:
2023 Actuals: 55.6%
Preseason Projections: 44.4%
Season Projections
Tucker and Julks both projected at 27 stolen bases.
Neris projects to 71 appearances, but more importantly the entire bullpen is being overused.
Projected Appearances:
Abreu 63 Maton 69 Montero 61 Neris 71 Stanek 60 Pressly 64
Astros 162
I’m planning on catching up on this over the All-Star Break, but surgery awaits, which means that’s a plan and not a commitment. That said, I’m in pretty good shape on this.
Bullpen Usage
Days off heading into the final two games before All-Star Game:
Abreu 0 Martinez 1 Maton 1 Montero 2 Neris 0 Pressly 0 Stanek 1
Today’s Pitching Matchup
NOTE: I’ve sorted these by wOBA against to make it easier to determine who to watch for (or bet on, if you are so inclined).
Bielak had a very good outing Tuesday when the Astros needed length. That was against the Rockies. I’m less encouraged about today’s possibilities, but the dude is a bulldog.
Could be a struggle for this offense against Logan Gilbert.
K Prop
The number for Bielak is 4.5. My number comes in at 3.36, the Mariners strike out a ton, but I find it hard to take the over on this one. Under.
Odds
Astros are +110 on ML and -154 +1.5. No bet here for me as the offense has been putrid, but I understand if you want to take +110 at Minute Maid.
Projected Standings
I’ll have more on complete MLB standings and playoff projections over the All-Star break, but for now, here is what the AL West looks like based on my model.
May not mean anything notes of the day
The Astros are slashing .170/.196/.234 in this series first 3 games.
Martin Maldonado is batting .138 with 1 HR and 1 RBI in the 8th inning this season.
Bradon Bielak has thrown his slider 13.8% of the time. Opponents are slashing .400/.667/.960 on the pitch with a HardHit% of 61.1.
Average four-seam fastball velocity (Fangraphs) for 2023:
It’s a tad strange to see Cristian Javier’s name near the bottom of this list. Per BaseballSavant Javier averaged 93.8 MPH on his four-seamer last season.
Thanks for reading!
