Updated Projections - Game 91 of 162

Sail on down the line

Composition of Projections:

2023 Actuals: 56.2%

Preseason Projections: 43.8%

Editor’s Note

I have surgery scheduled for this morning, so I’ll be down at least for the weekend. Hopefully back at it next week depending on recovery.

Season Projections

Interesting numbers for a team that “feels” like they are struggling offensively.

The Astros have a better average, similar OBP, a little less Slug, a lot less wRC+, less ISO (extra-base hits) and a higher BABIP through 91 games compared to last season.

• 91 Games 2023 - .247/.316/.407 101wRC+ 417 R .160 ISO .285 BABIP

• 91 Games 2022 - .239/.318./421 112wRC+ 403 R .182 ISO .267 BABIP

• 91 Games 2023 - 66 stolen bases 91 Games 2022 - 45 stolen bases

• Last season the Astros slashed .270/.350/.445 with RISP. The first 91 games of 2023? .272/.352/.462.

• The Astros have 20 fewer home runs after 91 games than they had in 2022. Alvarez and Altuve have exactly 20 fewer home runs than they had after 91 games last season (see note below).

• After 91 games last year, Alvarez had 26 home runs and Altuve had 17. Dubon has played well, especially defensively, but he is a poor substitute for Altuve offensively. Getting Altuve (and Alvarez) healthy and available for the vast majority of the remaining 71 games is key.

  

There’s an argument that the real culprit has been the pitching and (not meaning Bielak or France). Bielak has a 3.74 ERA as a starter and France 3.26. Blanco has been serviceable, but not consistent and gives up home runs by the bushel.

Bielak’s peripherals suggest that regression is likely - xERA of 5.71, for example, but that hasn’t happened yet and his last two outings have been really good (Rockies) and decent (Mariners).

Bielak, Blanco and France are projected to total 248 IP as of the All-Star Break. That's an issue and could be reduced with Jose Urquidy’s return.

But…when (if) Urquidy returns it’s not a sure thing that it gets much better.

In my mind, improvement is needed from Hunter Brown and Cristian Javier, who are filling the 2022 roles of Justin Verlander and a much better Cristian Javier, if the Astros are going to take a leap forward.

Javier’s xERA is over 2 full points higher than it was in 2022.

Rafael Montero is the obvious answer in the bullpen, but he’s been better lately, albeit in low-leverage situations for the most part.

After 91 games last season, Montero had a 1.93 ERA in 37.1 IP. Plug those numbers into this season’s bullpen and the 3.56 number below decreases to 2.98.

91 Games 2023: ERA All 3.67 Starters 3.74 Bullpen 3.56

91 Games 2022: ERA All 2.98 Starters 3.15 Bullpen 2.66

Astros 162

All caught up, but with surgery looming, will fall behind again. Click on the image for the latest episodes.

Bullpen Usage

Fresh start.

Today’s Pitching Matchup

NOTE: I’ve sorted these by wOBA against to make it easier to determine who to watch for (or bet on, if you are so inclined).

Limited experience for France vs. Angels, but Ohtani is 0 for 3 vs. France.

Next to no experience against the Mariners for Brown.

Meanwhile, Ohtani has oodles of experience vs. the Astros.

K Prop

The number for France is 5.5 and he doesn’t have enough history for me to bet, but that seems like a lot for a guy with 1 strike out against 14 Angels.

Odds

Astros are +132 on ML and -152 +1.5. Tough call, but I’ll take the Astros with a rested team and bullpen.

Projected Standings & Luck Rankings

Current Playoff Projections:

AL Division Winners: Rays, Rangers, Twins

AL Wild Cards: Orioles, Blue Jays, A’s

NL Division Winners: Braves, Dodgers, Reds

NL Wild Cards: Diamondbacks, Marlins, Giants

It’s only been 3 games since we projected these, but for trasnparency’s sake:

Marlins 51-38 .573 ↓ Since: 2-1

Reds 49-39 .557 ↓ Since: 1-2

Orioles 51-35 .593 ↓ Since: 3-0

Royals 25-63 .284 ↑ Since: 1-2

Padres 41-46 .471 ↑ Since: 2-1

Cubs 40-46 .465 ↑ Since: 2-1

Luck Rankings

A reminder that a positive number means the team has been lucky, 0 means neutral and negative means unlucky.

Most of this revolves around one-run and extra-inning games, with a dash of run differential and actual wins-losses tossed in.

May not mean anything notes of the day

• There are those that say Jeremy Pena is having a similar or even better year defensively than he did in 2022. I disagree and while I’m officially “iffy” on the various defensive metrics, I’ll point out that Pena finished 7 OAA in 2022 and is currently -1 OAA in 2023.

• After 91 games last season:

  Altuve 17 HR

  Alvarez 26 HR

• After 91 games this season:

  Altuve 6 HR

• Alvarez 17 HR

A look at the type of contact given up by Astros pitchers (Fangraphs):

• Just a note that Neris’ Soft% is trending down and Hard% is trending up since Mid-June.

• Yainer Diaz has a 50.0% O-Swing %, the highest on Astros, but his 37.2% hard-hit rate is third on the team behind Alvarez and Tucker.

Thanks for reading!