Updated Projections - Game 95 of 162
7-17
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Astros Expected Wins | MLB Projected Standings | MLB Power Rankings | MLB Luck Rankings | Journal
Composition of Projections:
2024 Actuals: 58.6%
Preseason Projections: 41.4%
The Astros are 50-45, in 2nd place in the American League West, 1.0 game behind the Seattle Mariners.
Fangraphs projects an 86-76 finish, 1st place in the AL West (percentage points), gives the Astros a 48.2% chance of winning the Division and a 62.4% chance of making the playoffs.
Season Projections
Stress Index
The goal is to capture the stress put on a pitcher, rather than just a number of pitches.
The calculation is straightforward: Number of pitches x aLI, where aLI is the average leverage index.
Consecutive 115+ stress starts for Arrighetti.
Current projections have Arrighetti at 136 IP for the season and he has never gone above 124.2 (2023) as a professional.
Consecutive 115+ stress starts for Arrighetti leads to similar concerns as those for Brown.
See Journal Entry for concerns on stress re: Hunter Brown.
The Home Run Project
No home runs yesterday.
OVER | UNDER
Under: 54 Over: 38 Push: 3
Under: 56.8% Over: 40.0% Push: 3.2%
Streak: 1 Under
If you want information on Umpires Scorecards please visit umpscorecards.com.
Projected Standings | Expected Wins | Luck
Through games of 7.13.34
Luck Rankings
Teams at top are “luckiest”, teams at bottom are “unluckiest”.
Astros are 25th in the Luck Rankings, implying there is still some upside in their W/L record ahead.
The Astros are 7-17 in one-run games.
The number below is the percentage of a team’s winning percentage that can be attributed to “luck”, either positive (green) or negative (red).
Example: At one point the Astros win % was .439 and my numbers say they “should” have been at .493, a difference of .054.
.054/.439 = 12.3% (rounded), which was the Astros luck rating, which was negative in this example.
In general, you expect the teams at bottom to regress positively (towards 0.00) and teams at top to regress negatively (to 0.00).
Stat(s) of the Day
Chas Outs Above Average
Quality Starts
Across the league teams win close to 70% of games where their team’s starter throws a quality start.
It is closer to 80% if your pitcher has a quality start and the other team’s pitcher does not throw a quality start.
Simply put, it’s indicative of “keeping your team in the game”.
Rolling 30-Day Batting
Rolling 30-Day Arms
MLB Power Rankings
On a scale where 100.00 = 81 wins. In other words, a power number of 110.00 means you would be expected to win 110% of the “average team” (81 wins) which equals 89 games.
These rankings consider runs scored, runs given up AND wins and losses.
50.00 = 40.50 wins
75.00 = 60.75 wins
100.00 = 81.00 wins
125.00 = 101.25 wins
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