Updated Projections - Game 95 of 162

Rocky Mountain Low

Jul 19, 2023

Composition of Projections:

2023 Actuals: 58.6%

Preseason Projections: 41.4%

Season Projections

It’s not the first time this season, but the Astros seemed lethargic and had no sense of urgency after the first inning last night.

Behind the Astros Dugout with Brad Kyle

The latest projections for the pitching staff.

Astros 162

Click on the image for episode 95.

Bullpen Usage

After a day off, reasonable usage for Stanek, Neris and Abreu. 5 days until the next off day.

Today’s Pitching Matchup

NOTE: I’ve sorted these by wOBA against to make it easier to determine who to watch for (or bet on, if you are so inclined).

In general, Brandon Bielak in Denver is a scary proposition. Some of those arms that have been rested the last two days may be needed. On the other hand, this is a team Bielak shut down a couple of weeks ago on two hits over 7 innings.

Gomber’s last three starts in Coors: 18 IP, 17 H, 7 R, 6 ER, 12 K, 2 BB

K Prop

3.5 is the number for Bielak and my number is 3.6. No bet for me.

Odds

Astros -162 on the MoneyLine and -104 -1.5. I’m of the mind that the Astros don’t get swept in Colorado, but taking them by more than 1 is an iffy proposition at the moment.

Projected Standings & Luck Rankings

The biggest news is we have the Marlins dropping out of playoffs as things stand now.

Current Playoff Projections:

AL Division Winners: Rays, Rangers, Twins

AL Wild Cards: Orioles, Blue Jays, Astros

NL Division Winners: Braves, Dodgers, Brewers

NL Wild Cards: Giants, Diamondbacks, Phillies

As of this morning, the ACTUAL playoffs would look like this:

AL Division Winners: Rays, Rangers, Twins

AL Wild Cards: Orioles, Blue Jays, Astros [with 1.5 game lead on Red Sox]

NL Division Winners: Braves, Dodgers, Brewers

NL Wild Cards: Giants, Diamondbacks, Phillies [by half-game over Marlins]

Luck Rankings

Since we projected these:

Marlins 51-38 .573 ↓ Since: 2-6 ✔︎

Reds 49-39 .557 ↓ Since: 1-7 ✔︎

Orioles 51-35 .593 ↓ Since: 6-2 ✕

Royals 25-63 .284 ↑ Since: 3-5 ✔︎

Padres 41-46 .471 ↑ Since: 4-4 ✔︎

Cubs 40-46 .465 ↑ Since: 4-4 ✔︎

May not mean anything notes of the day

Brandon Bielak (Baseball Savant):

xERA 5.75 (Bottom 8% of the league)
HardHit% 48.6 (Bottom 5% of the league)
xwOBA .365 (Bottom 8% of the league)
xSLG .488 (Bottom 9% of the league)
Max Exit Velocity 115.6 MPH (Bottom 4% of the league)

Something different today:

Thanks for reading!