Updated Projections - Game 99 of 162

99 problems

Composition of Projections:

2023 Actuals: 61.1%

Preseason Projections: 38.9%

Season Projections

99 games in.

Pitchers.

Astros 162

Click on the image for episode 99.

Bullpen Usage

Pressly, Abreu and Neris got days off.

Today’s Pitching Matchup

NOTE: I’ve sorted these by wOBA against to make it easier to determine who to watch for (or bet on, if you are so inclined).

Outside of Rooker, Seth Brown is the one A that’s dangerous at the plate, but let’s not forget the annoying (I mean that in a good way) Tony Kemp.

Hopefully, Chas is back at it today.

K Prop

6.5 is the number for Hunter Brown and my number comes in at 7.84. I will be on the over.

Odds

Astros -240 on the MoneyLine and -134 -1.5. Not sure I have the numbers to back this up, but feel like the Astros come out raking (as much as this team can) today and Brown pitches well.

Projected Standings & Luck Rankings

Rangers and Rays drop below 100 wins.

Luck Rankings

For the first time this season the Marlins are not No. 1 in our luck rankings. While the team is still a robust .700 in one-run games (21-9), they have lost 4 straight one-run contests.

Meanwhile, the Brewers are 19-8 in one-run games and 5-2 in extra innings, while the Orioles are 18-9 in one-run games and 6-5 in extras.

May not mean anything notes of the day

Since Yordan last played, the Astros are 19-17, with these stats/rankings:

• ERA 4.56 Starters ERA 4.70 Relievers 4.33 14 Saves 9 Blown Saves

  • MLB Rankings: ERA: 20th Starters: 12th Relievers: 22nd

• Batting: .249/.317/.411 with .317 wOBA 102 wRC+

  • MLB Rankings: Average: 17th OBP: 19th SLG: 13th wOBA: 15th wRC+: 13th

Some Rando numbers:

• Cristian Javier since June 9:

  • 7 G

  • 0-1 W-L

  • 32.1 IP (4.6 per)

  • 38 H (10.58/9)

  • 22 K (6.12/9)

  • 17 BB (4.73/9)

  • 7.52 ERA

  • 5.5 Barrel%

  • 33.6 HardHit%

  • 92.5 Avg Fastball

  • Avg Against .288

  • BABIP .314

  • Stuff+ 96

  • Location+ 99

  • Pitching+ 99

• Javier before June 9:

  • 12 G

  • 69.2 IP (5.8 per)

  • 53 H (6.85/9)

  • 72 K (9.30/9)

  • 16 BB (2.07/9)

  • 2.84 ERA

  • 12.0 Barrel%

  • 38.6 HardHit%

  • 92.9 Avg Fastball

  • Avg Against .207

  • BABIP .251

  • Stuff+ 97

  • Location+ 99

  • Pitching+ 100

Thanks for reading!