Walker Signing Puts Astros Back Atop AL West

Kyle Tucker sized hole remains in the outfield

Dec 23, 2024

I hadn’t planned on another post pre-holidays, but I didn’t expect the Astros to sign Christian Walker before Christmas, so here we are.

I also didn’t expect the confusion among Astro fans and even MLB writers about what Dana Brown is trying to accomplish with these moves.

The Plan is to Compete Every Year, Not Just 2025

I think it’s fairly simple.

The intent is to do what they have done for most of the last decade: Compete every year.

Yes, they could have kept Kyle Tucker and been better this season and maybe they win the division and maybe they don’t.

But doing so would have left them without Tucker (and Bregman and Framber in all likelihood) in 2026 and without any return except draft picks that may or may not contribute in say, 2029 or beyond.

By trading Tucker, they didn’t just get Isaac Parades, as some have intimated. They got Isaac Paredes (a 3.8 projected fWAR), a pitcher they believe can be a starter and a top 100 prospect.

Last season’s injury to Tucker proved to Brown the team could compete in the AL West without Tucker and the Astros think they can do the same this season while improving their team in future years.

They want to compete in 2025, but they also want to compete in 2026. And 2027.

Losing Tucker and Bregman in an offseason is a big deal, make no mistake.

But the Astros don’t lose the entire value of Tucker and Bregman in terms of fWAR and in some ways have vastly improved their team (first base comes to mind).

The difference between Bregman and Paredes is not as great on the field as some may think.

Steamer projections put Bregman at 3.9 fWAR for 2025 and Paredes at 3.8.

Bregman is a better fielder and that makes him an overall better player.

But, it’s a small net minus, because Paredes is not nothing. He’s just not Bregman.

Over at first base, the signing of Walker is a boon to Houston. The Astros went from -7 OAA with Jon Singleton to a multiple time Gold Glove winner, a swing of 20 outs in 2024.

Their infield defense, which was not good, immediately becomes much better because they are all throwing those ground balls induced by Framber and Hunter Brown to the best defensive first baseman in baseball and a Gold Glove winner.

Not a Gold Glove winner 5 years ago, but a Gold Glove winner last season. And in 2023. And in 2022.

Then there is this:

If you’re wondering why signing a 33-year-old first baseman to a three-year deal is a good idea, well, we went deep on this last month, so start there. The short version is this: Walker, the three-time defending NL Gold Glove winner, is the best-fielding first baseman in Statcast history, and it’s not particularly close.

And this:

The bat plays too, of course. Walker has the 11th-most homers in baseball over the past three seasons, and overall he’s been about as valuable a hitter as Alonso has been, just with slightly fewer dingers. Walker's bat speed, hard-hit rate, and barrel rate are all similar to what his more famous (possibly ex-) Mets counterpart has posted. The total package is that Walker has been a top-five 1B by fWAR over the previous three years, and while the age is absolutely a concern, three years is a reasonable span.

Walker also slashed .275/.350/.406 vs LHPs in 2024 and .255/.348/.574 in 2023.

And the salary and length of the deal are well within reasonable range.

The Astros go from an estimated 0.1 fWAR at first base to 2.8.

That net of 2.7 fWAR adds 5.9 wins using my numbers.

Walker is also a clubhouse leader who plays with an edge.

Will he be Bregman in the clubhouse? Probably not right away, but he’s also not someone is unliked or a wallflower.

In short, the net of Paredes/Walker is better than Bregman/Singleton on the field.

Tucker Sized Hole in Right Field

Yes, there’s a hole in the outfield and that’s a huge negative for Houston and it hurts their chances in 2025.

How it is filled could go a long way to determining if the Astros win the West again in the coming season.

Brown is attempting to thread the needle: Compete in 2025, while not pushing all of his chips in (i.e. keep Tucker and let him walk for draft picks), while building for the future.

Looking Beyond 2025

These moves are intended for the longer term.

Fans, myself included, think short term. We want to win in 2025.

Executives, at least smart ones that want to be around a while, plan years ahead.

It’s difficult to sacrifice in the short term for the potential longer term benefits, whether it’s in fandom or any other aspect of life.

But, it’s a smart move and the kind of thinking that has led to the Astros competing for the better part of a decade straight versus the roller coaster that other teams, like the Rangers, typically ride.

It’s a bonus that Walker was apparently the Mariners No. 1 offseason target and his only game action in T-Mobile Park will be as a member of the Astros.

This move vaults the Astros back atop the AL West in terms of estimated fWAR in 2025 and I’ll have an updated analysis of that later in the week.