What the Model Has Wrong

Wild Card is in Play

Before we get to the main feature, lets tip our cap to Spencer Arrighetti’s performance in Philadelphia and in the two games he pitched on the road trip.

13.2 innings, 5 hits, 0 runs, 17 K, 5 BB.

Obviously, 2 quality starts, which is helpful.

AL West and Wild Card Race

The Astros certainly helped themselves with a win in Philadelphia and now sit with an 86.1% chance of winning the West via Fangraphs.

That seems high to me, but I guess given the 3.5-game lead, remaining games and Seattle’s penchant for hovering around .500 it makes sense.

What doesn’t make sense to me, at least on first sight, is Fangraphs saying the Twins odds of winning a Wild Card is 62.5% while the Astros is 2.2% and they are separated by a single game.

Yes, I understand the model’s math believes the Astros will win the West and if they don’t they will likely fall out of the Wild Card race altogether.

I’m not saying the Astros Wild Card odds should be 62.5%, but 2.2%?

Two of a hundred?

Apparently, the Fangraphs model sees very little chance of the Astros AND Mariners going on a run and passing the Twins.

I agree, the odds aren’t great, but 2.2% seems low.

Here are my current projections which mirror what Fangraphs is saying: Yankees, Guardians, Astros Division Champs, Orioles, Royals and Twins Wild Card teams and Seattle and Boston on the outside looking in.

I’m not quibbling with the conclusion, just the odds of Houston’s Wild Card chances.

Here are the projected wins for each AL West team:

30-Day Bats and Arms + Chas

I’m one of the biggest Chas McCormick fans there is and have defended him many times on many platforms, but it was time.

He still offered something defensively, but right now the Astros need bats more than they need a late-inning defensive replacement.

Here are the 30-day numbers for bats and arms and you can see clearly that Chas was struggling.

Season Projections

Thanks for reading.