Who's On First?
If Alex Bregman moves on, the Astros should use the Breggy Bucks at first base
With the Winter Meetings dead ahead and the Juan Soto Sweepstakes headed for conclusion, it continues to feel like 6 years and $156 million is not enough to retain the services of Alex Bregman.
Especially when Willy Adames received 7 years and 182 million from the Giants.
That’s another year and another $26,000,000 for those counting.
If Bregman re-signs with the Astros this post is moot, at least for the most part, as Houston won’t be able to afford a free-agent first baseman, at least one of any note, without making another move, such as trading Ryan Pressly and his $14,000,000 contract.
That’s complicated by Pressly’s no-trade clause, which makes it tougher, but not impossible.
For now, I’m going to assume Bregman is gone and the Astros will turn their attention to first base.
We previously shared some of the obvious deficiencies in Jon Singleton’s game which have been painfully clear to Astros fans over the last season and a half.
I love the dude, but the Astros need an upgrade, both offensively and in the field.
In that same post, I threw out the idea of a short-term deal with someone like Carlos Santana, but that was assuming they kept Bregman.
Bregman moving on ostensibly opens up $26,000,000 per season, or some portion thereof, to spend at first.
Enter Christian Walker.
Considering Walker turned down the qualifying offer of $21.05 million from Arizona, that sounds like the financial ballpark he’d be in, if not more.
Walker has been remarkably consistent with the Arizona Diamondbacks over the last three seasons.
Flatlining, with a slight dip in Slug from 2023-2024.
Over his career, the right-handed hitting Walker has hit exactly .250 against both sides with a very similar OPS+ (100 against RHPs, 102 vs LHPs).
In 2024, Walker hit for a better average against LHPs, but did most of his damage against righties (129 OPS+ vs. 114 OPS+ against LHPs).
Walker is a good fielder, too, registering OAA of 99th, 97th and 97 percentiles over the last three seasons.
He stands out as the choice at first if you want to go “all in” and spend the Breggy Bucks all at once.
Walker turns 34 on March 28.
I was an advocate for Santana, as a platoon and defensive guy, and still would be if your plan is to spread the Breggy Bucks around.
Shorter contract, less long-term risk and upgrade over Singleton, though there is more volatility.
I don’t think Pete Alonso is in the cards and he’s not good defensively, but here are his numbers just for grins.
There’s a lot of volatility and the downward slope on the Slug has to be cause for some concern.
I looked at a few other free agent first baseman, but none seemed to fit the mold, at least the mold that I think of, guys like Ty France and Justin Turner, for example.
It seems to be Walker and if not him, some platoon like Santana/Singleton or a combination of guys already on the 40-man.
It feels like the Soto Sweepstakes is coming to an end, Breggy Bucks will follow shortly and dominoes are about to fall.
If the Astros can’t retain Bregman, then Walker is the logical move.